The New Economic Fog

We’re not in a recession. Not in a boom. Inflation isn’t gone, but it’s no longer spiking. And yet, everywhere you look—executives are hesitating. The markets are twitchy, customers are cautious, and leadership teams are frozen in Waitflation: the tense, uncertain space between reaction and resolution.

What is Waitflation?

Waitflation is the paralysis that sets in when companies are unsure whether to lean in or pull back. It’s marked by:

• Indecision at the top
• Hesitant capital deployment
• Conservative forecasting despite strong balance sheets
• Fear of policy shifts: tariffs, rate changes, spending cuts

It’s not about what is happening—it's about the collective anxiety around what might. Uncertainty is at a record high as measured by the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (3-month moving average is plotted below)

Reason For Hope (and Action)

While there is indeed cause for uncertainty, consumer behavior to-date – even in light of the uncertainty, gives cause to move past the waiting.

Borrowing from a recent blog from ITR Economics the chart below compares the Index of Consumer Expectations 3MMA to Retail Sales. You will see that Expectations may be down, but that does not mean Retail Sales will be down.

The Hidden Dangers of Waiting

While caution feels prudent, prolonged hesitation erodes competitive advantage:

• Lost market share to bolder competitors
• Innovation pipelines dry up
• Talent disengages without clear direction
• Customer confidence fades

In Waitflation, the opportunity cost of doing nothing becomes the real risk.

The Growth Gears: A Framework for Forward Motion

In an environment like this, companies need to stop guessing and start acting with speed and clarity. That’s where The Growth Gears can help—a rapid-deployment framework to break paralysis:

1. Assess – Diagnose current market realities, customer behavior shifts, and internal readiness.
2. Revise – Refine strategy to focus on clarity, agility, and immediate wins.
3. Execute – Move quickly with precision: test, learn, and adapt in compressed cycles.

This isn’t about reckless risk—it’s about calculated momentum.

(To implement The Growth Gears with greater speed and precision, the approach has been fully optimized in a new, AI-assisted platform, GrowthGears OS.)

Conclusion: Win in the Window

Waitflation won’t last forever—but what you do in this moment determines how you emerge on the other side. Companies that act now will be positioned to lead when the fog clears.