It is no secret that the US economy is experiencing more turbulence than most jetliners – and that is saying a lot! If you have been following ITR Economics' monthly Trends Report™, you are probably aware of ITR’s mild recession forecast for the industrial sectors and slower growth forecast for GDP this year. ITR is also predicting a 3.0% rate of inflation in 2024.

Now here is the big question: Should you be worried? Regardless of the projected intensity, our economy is nonetheless experiencing a choppy season. Though having a plan is crucial, keeping your eye on the bigger picture is paramount. ITR forecasts that the US economy will shift back into broad-based growth, moving from a downward economy at the end of 2024 to a period of sustained growth during 2025. The transition from sluggishness to accelerating rise over 12 months is noteworthy.

Turning Challenges Into Opportunities

The turnaround can transform what seems like the equivalent of economic doldrums into a golden opportunity. Rather than waiting to see if ITR’s forecast holds true, consider the firm’s impressive track record. Since 1985, ITR has been 94.7 percent accurate in forecasting the economy 12 months out. With this level of reliability, it is smart to take their predictions seriously and start preparing now.

So, should you get conservative in your approach? Yes, but only for a short while. You need to be cautious enough to weather the immediate unease while preparing to seize the growth opportunities that will follow. Do not let the gloom and doom of a down cycle, magnified by the election cycle, cause you to miss out on the promising phase of growth anticipated for 2025.

Planning Your Growth Opportunities

To plan effectively, you need more than just market data; you need to understand where your business stands in its own economic cycle. This involves calculating your rates-of-change (the 12/12 rate-of-change defines your specific cycle; the 3/12 rate-of-change leads the 12/12) to determine your current economic phase and where you are heading. There is plenty of information on ITR’s website to help you with this, and if you cannot figure it out, give me a shout.

Knowing your current economic business cycle phase and future trajectory is crucial for developing appropriate strategies. As the legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky said, "A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be." Similarly, to be a great business leader, you must understand where your business – as well as the markets in which you compete – is today and where it is headed.

Recommendations for Each Economic Phase

It is useful to dive into some recommendations for each of the four business cycle phases to help you prepare for the upcoming growth cycle. Keep in mind that these relate to the economic phase your business is currently experiencing:

Phase A: Recovery

• Stop hoarding and start spending: Begin investing in your business and employees to prepare for growth.
• Focus on employee training: Equip your team with the skills they will need to support future growth.
• Build an aggressive growth plan: Prepare a comprehensive strategy to capitalize on an accelerated growth phase, which hopefully follows this one.
• Phase out low-margin work: Focus on high-value activities that will drive your business forward.

Phase B: Accelerating Growth

• Watch out for euphoria: Invest early but stay grounded and avoid overextending yourself.
• Delight your customers: Prioritize customer satisfaction to strengthen your market position.
• Accelerate training: Ensure your training programs enhance your ability to deliver quality goods and services.
• Expand strategically: Consider entering new geographies and industries but avoid launching untested products and services.
• Eliminate bottlenecks: Streamline your operations to enhance efficiency and meet growing demand.

Phase C: Slowing Growth

• Concentrate on cash and the balance sheet: Maintain financial stability by managing your resources prudently.
• Keep a tight leash on accounts receivable: Ensure you collect payments promptly to maintain cash flow.
• Plan for reduction by attrition: Avoid unnecessary hires and manage your workforce carefully.
• Manage marketing expenditures judiciously: Maintain your marketing efforts but avoid excessive spending.
• Emphasize superior products: Promote your best offerings and maintain a strong brand presence.

Phase D: Recession

• Exhibit courageous leadership: Stay positive and lead your team confidently through challenging times.
• Reduce overhead: Cut unnecessary costs without resorting to multiple rounds of layoffs.
• Spend on marketing wisely: Focus on your unique selling points and differentiators. Nurture your existing clients!
• Manage accounts receivable diligently: Ensure you are collecting payments promptly to maintain liquidity.
• Run a tight ship: Keep your operations lean and efficient to navigate a business recession successfully.

Looking Ahead

Your focus throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 should be on planning for both the mid-term and long term while executing near-term strategies effectively. With a surging US economy expected by the end of 2025, the question is this: Will you be ready to capitalize on it?

By understanding your current economic phase, anticipating where your business and the markets are heading, and implementing the right strategies, you can survive and thrive in the coming months. Stay focused, stay prepared, and position yourself to take full advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead.